Seeking Alpha, the most read investment blog, has a fascinating story on Dr. Michael Burry’s current investment strategy.   If you’re not familiar with Dr. Burry, read “The Big Short”, the mesmerizing tale of Burry and the mortgage bond market.  He is commonly viewed as the first predictor of the debacle that followed.   Inherent in his current picks is a move toward hard assets, and implicitly, a hedge against inflation.   This is  our common theme–index annuities protect your principal, even in rising interest rate market and allow you to capture the “up” years.   In Burry, Predictor of Mortgage Collapse, Bets on Farmland, Gold, Bloomberg has a great profile on Dr. Michael Burry and his recent investments. Says Bloomberg: Michael Burry, the former hedge-fund manager who predi ...

  This recessions is painful beyond most memories, particularly for the lower skilled Americans.   Underemployment is creating great anxiety for the educated class and unemployment is devastating for the lower skill cohort of Americans.   Many analogies are being made with the Great Depression. This post shows how fundamentally worse was the Great Depression than today. http://www.wealthvest.com/blog/wade-dokken/the-great-depression-vs-2007-2010-with-observations-by-wade-dokken/ Source: FDIC, Federal Reserve; Commerce Department; Dow Jones; Christina Romer, Obama economic adviser, “Lessons from The Great Depression vs. 2007-2010″ Great Depression vs. Great Recession The chart above shows monthly unemployment rates from: a) January 1931 to December 1940 (120 months) and b) January 2007 to August 2010.  We hear a lot of comparisons between the recent recession and the Great Depression, and the chart above shows that those comparisons are hugely ...

  I am attempting to accumulate a library of commentary on the Great Recession vs. the Great Depression.   This powerful comparison by Barry Eichengreen and Kevin H. O’Rourke is comprehensive in its review of the distinct differences between these two calamities. http://www.wealthvest.com/blog/wade-dokken/great-depression-vs-great-recession-devaluation-unemployment-global-trade-everything/     http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3421   Barry Eichengreen Kevin H. O’Rourke 8 March 2010   This column updates the original Vox columns by Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O’Rourke comparing today’s global crisis to the Great Depression. The three previous columns have shattered all Vox readership records with over 450,000 views. This latest edition covers up to February 2010 sho ...

Spend a little time looking at the two accompanying tables and charts.    I’d like to draw your attention to the similarity of yields in 1954 and today for the 10 year Treasury Bond.   Now, look at the graph below the table and the steep 26 year rise in bond yields.   I’m working on the numbers now, but the simple conclusion is that history would suggest that from today’s bond prices to bond prices in the future is an treacherous road for bond investors. Bond buyers lost a tremendous level of their principal between 1954 and 1981. Can rates go lower today (hence bond prices higher)?  Yes, and in fact bond buyers today may in fact be experiencing very positive returns.   If deflation were to happen, and in some portions of economic analysis (wages), deflation is occurring.   Even 0% yields in that environment produce positive returns, since purchasing power of the principal is being enhanced. However, when the cycle turns, bond principal can be devastated. ...

  I have shared this essay with my boys, because I believe the macro-economic forces highlighted in Fareed's essay are at the heart of our current long-term economic predicament.   We need to fundamentally adjust our domestic priorities and expectations on ourselves;  willing to study longer, harder and accept less consumption and greater savings.  We need to look carefully at how much we are willing to spend on defense, entitlements and be honest about the level of government we support and are willing to pay for. I'm terribly pessimistic on our ability to do some of these things and therefore, I believe are in for a long-term inflationary cycle.  Great for real estate.   Bond for stocks and bonds.    It make sense.   We have a great run in financial assets.   Those days are likely done. However, we live in Montana, ski at Big Sky, hike the Spanish Peaks, fish the Yellowstone River.   Life is still great. His weekly show is the most thoughtful, ratio ...

 This is a blog that I posted on another site.   The point was slightly different and whimsical.  However, their is a different point for a real estate blog.   We have had minor deflation in the U.S. last year, which was the first year in nearly 50 years of declining prices.  In real estate, we have seen three years of declining prices, and I can't believe they can continue.   Housing costs are around 2003 cost levels--even though overall inflation for the past decade was nearly 30%.   The dates do not make a perfect match, but the point remains.   Houses are below replacement cost.   The population of our country is growing and as a nation our GDP is growing, which means we are becoming wealthier.  Moreover--and perhaps most importantly, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Congress/Executive remain focused on a series of fiscal and monetary strategies to inflate the money supply and prime the pump.    Once this process successfully gains hold, the pri ...

 We often do not connect the dots--between the preservation of our precious state and the reality that those who are attracted to come here to vacation, travel, recreate, and live part of their life, base their decisions on the high quality of our wild spaces and the abundance of our great wildlife resource.   Big Sky's luxury buyers are also people who are keenly focused on helping to preserve the wild spaces of their new Montana home; whether that is at the Yellowstone Club, Big Sky, Spanish Peaks or Moonlight Basin.   By MATTHEW BROWN Associated Press Posted: 12/12/2010 09:36:57 AM PST Updated: 12/12/2010 09:44:51 AM PST       BILLINGS, Mont.—Philanthropist Hansjorg Wyss grew up in Switzerland and now spends the bulk of his time outside Philadelphia, but it is the wild landscapes of the Rocky Mountains where he could leave his most lasting mark. In recent years the publicity-shy billionaire has quietly donated tens of millions of dollars to the preservatio ...

  I have reprinted this entire article from the Wall Street Journal.   It is unfathomable to you or I the pain that must be felt by Bernie Madoff's victims--to wake up one day and realize that your entire financial plan is a mirage--all your savings evaporated.  My six degrees of separation is three degrees.  A very good friend is in the business of placing money with hedge fund managers.  He could not get capacity to place money with Bernie Madoff--and I can't remember how hard he tried.   In his town of Fairfield, Connecticut, another family was in the same business and could get hundreds of million of capacity in Bernie Madoff's fund.   They and their investors have been wiped out, like everyone Bernie's criminal activity.   Today it is his own son. Dead from suicide.   i don't know if he was complicit or not complicit.  Others will determine this in due time, but regardless, so tragic. Some in our local area would categorize Tim and Edra Blixseth, o ...

  A snowstorm prior to Thanksgiving followed by frigid single-digit and sub-zero temperatures ushered in the ski and snowboard season in Montana. Accumulating natural snow caused several resorts to open for the holidays to the delight of skiers and snowboarders anxiously eyeing the slopes. Memories of several consecutive winters of scant early season snow faded fast with what Big Sky Resort touted as "the best conditions in 10 years." Thanksgiving Day saw the lifts start turning for the season at Big Sky. Discovery Ski Area expected to open 35-45 percent of their terrain with three chairlifts running Thanksgiving Day on what it called "high quality snow." Silver Chief, the resort's new backside chair, was not operating, but will run Saturdays, Sundays, and holidays for skiing 200 new acres when conditions permit. The resort is planning to groom some of the steeper runs on Granite Lift by closing the lift to skiing Thursdays. Bridger Bowl opened two weeks early with what the resort ...

  Sixteen ski areas are listed on Winter Montana’s official state travel and information site. Five ski areas were open in late November. Many others have opening day scheduled for the first week in December. The open areas are Big Sky Resort near Bozeman,Montana Snowbowl near Missoula, and Red Lodge Mountain south of Billings. Lookout Pass, also open on Thanksgiving, is near Wallace, Idaho but Montana claims it as a local ski area. One other area with limited runs open is Discovery Basin near Anaconda. Soon to open are Lost Trail Powder Mountain, Bridger Bowl, Great Divide, Maverick Mountain, and Whitefish Mountain; all are scheduled to open the first week in December.  Following these are Moonlight Basin, Showdown, Turner Mountain, Teton Pass and Blacktail Mountain. Check the Winter Montana site for more information. It is found at www.wintermt.com. You will find links to all the ski areas and information about cross-country skiing, snowmobilin ...